How New Orleans Can Bounce Back
A lot of people familiar with the city wonder how it can bounce back, given the devastation. Not that I know shit, but I think it will. Here are some things I think might happen:
Once the city is drained, the wreckage blocking the infrastructure will be cleared. Eventually the water, sewage, and electricity will be repaired. At that point you’ll have several hundred thousand (or more) displaced people.
Volunteers will help clean up the bulk of the non-infrastructure-blocking wreckage, i.e., wrecked houses and buildings, and downed trees.
At this point, the property market in New Orleans will be in a tailspin.
Some people will not come back. But many will--their friends, families, and histories are in New Orleans. Many of those that do come back (of all income levels) will essentially be put on welfare by the government. They will be issued food stamps, a stipend, and probably given a certain amount of repair resources with which to fix their homes. Charity will play a big role.
Many locals whose jobs are gone will find work helping homeowners and businesses rebuild, whether rebuilding networks, or nailing shingles.
Tourists will not come back at first, so the employment situation overall will be dire, but there will be some jobs, and these will "seed" the local economy.
Key to saving New Orleans is keeping a critical mass of citizens from leaving permanently. Ironically, the crash of the property market will be essential to this. If a massive plan to defend the city from future storms is put in place, buyers will be attracted to the very low property prices, since housing is so expensive elsewhere. With enough incentives, buyers will slowly return.
As time passes and a new normalcy emerges, small businesses, including bars, small markets, gas stations, some superstores, and so on, will open and employ people.
Essentially, life in New Orleans will need to be subsidized until a market for goods and services develops on its own. In the Great Depression, the government adopted huge projects (like the Tennessee Valley Authority) to employ people. Maybe the government will come up with projects like that for New Orleans, as well. That way, people would have money in their pocket, the city would be rebuilt, and everyday life would reemerge in town.
Eventually, as long as the city’s storm defenses are upgraded, New Orleans will survive as a living city. Geographically, it is a hub of the energy and shipping industries, and a major industrial and agricultural capital. Culturally and historically, it is unique enough, and enough of that uniqueness probably survived, to draw visitors back.
The population will probably shrink in the coming years (compared to pre-Katrina), but people will go where there is an incentive (e.g. low property prices, jobs); where there are working people, there is a marketplace; where there are markets there is an economy. That, in addition to the assurances of physical storm defenses, should be enough to keep New Orleans alive in the long term.
This is all off the top of my head. If you think of anything else, please let me know!
(BTW, if the President says the US economy won't be harmed by this, I think he's full of shit. He actually can't say that the economy is toast without it become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Energy prices are going to continue to be super-high, which will come right out of national consumer spending, and many companies probably will unexpectedly miss earnings for this and future quarters.)
Once the city is drained, the wreckage blocking the infrastructure will be cleared. Eventually the water, sewage, and electricity will be repaired. At that point you’ll have several hundred thousand (or more) displaced people.
Volunteers will help clean up the bulk of the non-infrastructure-blocking wreckage, i.e., wrecked houses and buildings, and downed trees.
At this point, the property market in New Orleans will be in a tailspin.
Some people will not come back. But many will--their friends, families, and histories are in New Orleans. Many of those that do come back (of all income levels) will essentially be put on welfare by the government. They will be issued food stamps, a stipend, and probably given a certain amount of repair resources with which to fix their homes. Charity will play a big role.
Many locals whose jobs are gone will find work helping homeowners and businesses rebuild, whether rebuilding networks, or nailing shingles.
Tourists will not come back at first, so the employment situation overall will be dire, but there will be some jobs, and these will "seed" the local economy.
Key to saving New Orleans is keeping a critical mass of citizens from leaving permanently. Ironically, the crash of the property market will be essential to this. If a massive plan to defend the city from future storms is put in place, buyers will be attracted to the very low property prices, since housing is so expensive elsewhere. With enough incentives, buyers will slowly return.
As time passes and a new normalcy emerges, small businesses, including bars, small markets, gas stations, some superstores, and so on, will open and employ people.
Essentially, life in New Orleans will need to be subsidized until a market for goods and services develops on its own. In the Great Depression, the government adopted huge projects (like the Tennessee Valley Authority) to employ people. Maybe the government will come up with projects like that for New Orleans, as well. That way, people would have money in their pocket, the city would be rebuilt, and everyday life would reemerge in town.
Eventually, as long as the city’s storm defenses are upgraded, New Orleans will survive as a living city. Geographically, it is a hub of the energy and shipping industries, and a major industrial and agricultural capital. Culturally and historically, it is unique enough, and enough of that uniqueness probably survived, to draw visitors back.
The population will probably shrink in the coming years (compared to pre-Katrina), but people will go where there is an incentive (e.g. low property prices, jobs); where there are working people, there is a marketplace; where there are markets there is an economy. That, in addition to the assurances of physical storm defenses, should be enough to keep New Orleans alive in the long term.
This is all off the top of my head. If you think of anything else, please let me know!
(BTW, if the President says the US economy won't be harmed by this, I think he's full of shit. He actually can't say that the economy is toast without it become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Energy prices are going to continue to be super-high, which will come right out of national consumer spending, and many companies probably will unexpectedly miss earnings for this and future quarters.)
posted by HAKKIN£N!!!!!!!!!!!!! at 14:26
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